(Reuters) -J.P. Morgan said on Wednesday it now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, reversing its earlier call that policymakers would stay on hold until January.
The shift follows comments from key officials, including New York Fed President and FOMC Vice Chair John Williams, that hinted at an earlier move, signaling the central bank’s likely stance to markets.
Goldman Sachs said in a separate note on Wednesday that with no other major data release scheduled before December 9-10, “the September jobs report may have sealed a 25 basis points cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting.”
“While the next FOMC meeting remains a close call, we now believe the latest round of Fedspeak tilts the odds toward the Committee deciding to cut rates in two weeks from today,” said J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli in a note.
“We’re back to looking for a final cut in January,” Feroli said.
Traders are pricing in a nearly 85% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut in December, as per the CME FedWatch tool.
Earlier this month J.P. Morgan had withdrawn its forecast for a December cut following the September jobs report that was delayed due to the Government shutdown.
(Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty in Bengaluru)
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