(Reuters) -China’s economy grew at a slightly faster pace than expected in the second quarter, showing resilience in the face of U.S. tariffs, though analysts warn of intensifying headwinds that will ramp up pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus.
Data on Tuesday showed China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.2% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, but just ahead of analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 5.1%.
KEY POINTS
* Q2 GDP +5.2% y/y (f’cast +5.1%, Q1 +5.4%)
* Q2 GDP +1.1% q/q (f’cast +0.9%, Q1 +1.2%)
* June industrial output +6.8% y/y (f’cast +5.7%, May +5.8%)
* June retail sales +4.8% y/y (forecast +5.4%, May +6.4%)
* H1 fixed asset investment +2.8% y/y (forecast +3.6%, Jan-May +3.7%)
* H1 property investment -11.2% y/y (Jan-May -10.7%)
MARKET REACTION
China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index reversed course to trade flat, while Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng cut gains after the data came in. The CSI 300 index was down 0.1%, while the Hang Seng was up 0.7%.
COMMENTARY
CHRISTOPHER WONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE
“The Chinese economic and growth data was mixed, with industrial production surprising to the upside despite persistent property sector weakness. There was only modest impact on the yuan, partly reflecting policymakers’ intent to pursue stability in the yuan. The focus next will be on details of China’s policy support and tariff developments.”
DAN WANG, CHINA DIRECTOR, EURASIA GROUP, SINGAPORE
“Industrial production remains the key growth driver, but it’s highly automated and doesn’t generate jobs. Q3 growth is at risk without stronger fiscal stimulus. Consumption is weaker than expected — momentum from the trade-in programme has faded, and housing remains a drag with low transaction volumes.
“(U.S. President Donald) Trump’s tariffs hit exporters hard, triggering SME bankruptcies and damaging sentiment. Both consumers and businesses have turned more cautious, while exporters are increasingly looking overseas for growth.”
JEFF NG, HEAD OF ASIA MACRO STRATEGY, SMBC, SINGAPORE
“The market reaction was quite muted because of the fact that expectations were already there for China to grow by more than 5%.
“Growth has been supported by front-loading… (but) I think we’re still staring at a slowdown once the tariffs come into fruition.
“The domestic economy and retail sales, of course, it’ll still be dragged by concerns. The sentiment isn’t that great, but at least I see some signs of it bottoming out.”
BACKGROUND
* U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade war has added a significant new layer of risk for China’s economy, which has been struggling to mount a solid recovery due to a prolonged property crisis, deflationary pressures and low consumer confidence.
* The world’s second-biggest economy has so far avoided a sharp slowdown this year due partly to a fragile U.S.-China trade truce and policy support measures.
* China’s exports regained some momentum in June while imports rebounded, as firms rushed out shipments to capitalise on the tariff truce between Beijing and Washington ahead of a looming August deadline.
* Beijing has ramped up infrastructure spending and consumer subsidies, alongside steady monetary easing. In May, the central bank cut interest rates and injected liquidity as part of broader efforts to cushion the economy from Trump’s trade tariffs.
* But analysts say stimulus alone may not be enough to tackle entrenched deflationary pressures, with producer prices in June falling at their fastest pace in nearly two years.
* China has set an ambitious 2025 growth target of “around 5%”, though the trade war with the United States has already prompted many analysts to sharply downgrade their GDP forecasts for this year.
* For the whole of 2025, China’s GDP growth is forecast to cool to 4.6% – falling short of the official goal – from last year’s 5.0% and ease further to 4.2% in 2026, according to a Reuters poll.
(Reporting by Reuters Asia bureaus; Compiled and edited by Subhranshu Sahu)
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