By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday the U.S. central bank needs to “proceed slowly” with any further interest rate cuts as it eases policy towards a level that would likely stop putting downward pressure on inflation.
In remarks prepared for delivery at a Kansas City Fed event, Jefferson said he agreed the central bank’s quarter-percentage-point rate cut last month was appropriate, given increased risks to the job market and the likelihood that inflation risks “have declined somewhat recently.”
“The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have moved it closer to its neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy,” Jefferson said. “The evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.”
Fed officials are divided over the need to cut rates further, with different opinions about the level of inflation risk and whether the job market is likely to erode further.
The lack of government data has made analysis all the more complicated, and Jefferson said “it remains unclear how muchofficial data we will see” before the December 9-10 Fed policy meeting.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its key monthly employment report for September on Thursday, but the full publication schedule for other data disrupted by the now-ended 43-day government shutdown has not been announced.
Jefferson elaborated on his views later during his appearance, and particularly on what he sees as the risks to the job market.
The U.S. labor market is in a “sluggish” state, he said, with firms hesitant to hire amid broad shifts in economic policy and interest in how artificial intelligence might be a substitute for new hiring.
“We have a labor market that is right now…sort of sluggish,” Jefferson said in comments at the Kansas City Fed event. Firms “don’t want to overcommit to new hiring if in fact AI is going to be able to do some of the work that would have been done by new workers…It is also the case that they are facing a lot of uncertainty around what exactly is going to be true with economic policy more generally.”
“It’s difficult to know how long that’s going to be the case.”
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci )
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