By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said Friday he sees limited risks of a big rise in either unemployment or inflation, letting the Fed balance its two goals as it debates further interest rate cuts.
“Our focus is more about balance,” Barkin said in comments to be delivered at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The quarter-point rate cut at last week’s meeting, “should help support the labor market while maintaining pressure on inflation” that remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
Barkin’s prepared remarks were provided before the release of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data. He is not a voter on interest rates this year and did not yet indicate if he would endorse an interest rate cut at the central bank’s October meeting.
But amid talk of both inflation risks and a crackup of the job market, Barkin said there were reasons to be “sanguine” about each.
He said that two food processors in his district “each lost hundreds of employees” when their immigration status changed, “yet were able to backfill those positions with little difficulty. These aren’t the most attractive jobs, to say the least. If they can be replaced with short notice, that’s a sign that the labor market has started to seem a little wobbly.”
Yet because changes in immigration are also slowing growth in the labor force, changes in the unemployment rate may be limited.
Likewise, he said, firms want to pass along higher import costs, but pushback from consumers whose budgets may be stretched by prior price increases may limit how much the new import taxes feed broader inflation.
“We know tariffs are affecting input costs,” Barkin said. “Consumer pushback should limit the magnitude of price increases.” People vying for each job. The data reflects this: While job growth has fallen considerably, the unemployment rate has stayed relatively stable.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Anna Driver)
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