As Blinken Leaves the Region, Israel Is Stuck and Hamas Is Still Calling the Shots
A potential agreement between Israel and Hamas could lead to a temporary cease-fire and the release of hostages
By Keren Setton/The Media Line
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken completed his recent shuttle diplomacy tour of Middle Eastern capitals this week, concluding in Israel, still awaiting a response from the Hamas terrorist organization regarding a hostage deal that could lead to a temporary cease-fire. The Israeli War Cabinet is meeting Thursday evening to discuss the next stages of the war, pending Hamas’ response.
Seven months after Hamas attacked Israel’s southern border, killing approximately 1,200 Israelis, wounding thousands, and kidnapping over 250 people, Israel’s massive retaliation has yet to fully subdue Hamas. With its military leadership still in hiding, Hamas retains the ability to influence events, raising questions about Israel’s handling of the war.
“The Israeli government is essentially paralyzed,” Professor Danny Orbach, a military historian from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told The Media Line. “It is under pressure from the extreme right wing from within to be as hard-line as possible and under opposite pressure from other elements and the US to reach a deal and increase humanitarian aid. The result is no movement in any direction.”
At the war’s outset, Israeli officials warned it would be long. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set two goals: Neutralize Hamas’ military capabilities, essentially removing it from power in the Gaza Strip, and secure the hostages’ release. So far, 124 hostages have been freed, mostly in an initial deal. Official details of the current proposed deal have not been disclosed, but reports indicate Hamas may release 20 to 30 hostages in exchange for a cease-fire and the release of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.
Gaza has borne a heavy toll due to Israel’s military campaign. The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reports over 34,000 Palestinians killed since Hamas’ October 7 attack, with 77,000 injured. The United Nations estimates that 1.7 million Gaza residents have been displaced.
Anonymous Israeli officials have said the chances of a deal remain slim.
Israel has significantly scaled down its operations in Gaza, with most of the 300,000 reservists called up after the October 7 attack being released. In early April, the Israeli army confirmed that only one brigade would maintain a regular presence in Gaza, paving the way for Hamas to reassert itself as the ruling power throughout Gaza.
“Since January, Israel has largely ended the intense warfare in Gaza,” Orbach said. “But because there is still fighting, there is accumulating damage to Israel’s international stature. So now, Israel is taking the heat of conducting a war, without reaching the very important goal of getting rid of Hamas. If this goal was reached, the damage would have been worth it.”
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ leader in Gaza, who orchestrated the attack against Israel, reportedly leads the conflict from a Gaza tunnel. He has little incentive to negotiate with Israel. By holding onto the hostages, he has already succeeded. His attack was the deadliest single-day assault on Israel, and the Jewish state now faces mounting international pressure and criticism over its handling of the war and the ensuing humanitarian crisis.
“From the minute Israel accepted the principle that as long as talks are underway, there is no real fighting, Hamas’ interest is to drag on the negotiations as long as possible,” said Orbach.
Israel has yet to operate in Rafah, Hamas’ stronghold, which borders Egypt and is thought to be the hideout of Sinwar and other senior Hamas terrorists. This city contains an intricate web of cross-border tunnels that have been Hamas’ lifeline for weapons. Rafah is also the temporary home to many of Gaza’s displaced. The US has repeatedly cautioned Israel against operating there, citing the potential fallout, which could jeopardize US support.
“American opposition to an operation in Rafah deters Hamas from wanting a deal,” Orbach added. “Hamas sees that the offers it gets keep getting better.”
Netanyahu, leading an ultra-nationalist government, is under intense pressure to advance the operation. He vowed to operate in Rafah, saying the war would be incomplete without an operation there.
“This dilemma between the American pressure versus the failed efforts to reach a hostage deal have resulted in the war dragging on for so long,” Professor Eitan Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Media Line.
For now, the US has not explicitly opposed an operation in Rafah. It has set conditions that Israel has yet to meet.
“If the US will pull the handbrakes and tell Israel not to operate in Rafah, it will not happen,” Shamir said.
A hostage deal, likely accompanied by an extended cease-fire, could impact such an operation. While senior army officers claim they could resume the offensive, a deal could signal the end of such plans.
“Israel will not be able to resume the fighting without a renewed reason to do so,” Shamir added. “The situation is exceptionally complicated. Israel is facing an enemy that seeks its destruction and is demanding that it stop fighting against it in return for the hostages. It is difficult to see how any government would be able to extract itself from such a complex situation.”
There is wide consensus in Israel that an operation in Rafah is necessary.
“If not, Hamas will be able to rebuild its power in a matter of years,” Shamir said. “Israel has so far not succeeded in blocking the path of armament to Hamas.”
This hinges not only on Israel’s ability to succeed in Rafah but also on finding an alternative to Hamas in Gaza, a discussion Israel has largely avoided, much to the White House’s dismay.
According to Orbach, one of Israel’s most significant errors is its negotiation strategy. Netanyahu ruled out any involvement in Gaza of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, and rejected Israeli military rule there. Each option was dismissed for political reasons. With no international willingness to send forces into Gaza, Hamas or chaos remain the only viable options, undermining Israel’s objectives.
“Israel should have said it wanted to rule Gaza as a negotiation tactic. This would have pushed others to offer an alternative,” said Orbach, “By failing to offer an alternative, it didn’t raise the price and incentivize others to want to rule.”
Despite increasing criticism in Israel over the current impasse, Hamas has suffered a significant blow. Rocket fire from Gaza has nearly ceased, and daily life in Israel has resumed. According to the Israeli military, thousands of terrorists have been killed, albeit few senior commanders. Although significantly battered, Hamas will be the one to determine the course of the war, leaving Israel in a position, yet again, in which it is reacting to Hamas rather than setting the tone.
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