Israel Debates Rafah Ground Operation With Hostage Deal Truce
Rafah stands as Hamas’ final stronghold in the Gaza Strip, and with the Israeli Defense Forces preparing for an operation, political and geopolitical factors come into play
By Debbie Mohnblatt/The Media Line
As the Israeli army prepares to launch a ground operation in the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, the government is awaiting Hamas’ response to a cease-fire proposal in return for the release of hostages. For Israel, the situation seems to be reduced to either striking a deal or launching a Rafah operation.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz told Channel 12 on Friday, “If there is a deal, we will suspend the operation,” adding that the hostages’ release is a priority for the State of Israel.
Following Hamas’ terror attack on Israel on October 7, the Israeli government vowed to dismantle Hamas’ military and political infrastructure. This was followed by the launching of a ground operation that targeted the terror organization in northern and central Gaza, leaving Rafah in the south as the only territory under Hamas control.
However, launching a ground operation in Rafah remains controversial in domestic and international political arenas.
Prof. Kobi Michael, senior researcher on national security and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at Misgav Institute and the Institute for National Strategic Studies, told The Media Line that it is well understood that a ground operation in Rafah will most certainly hurt the ongoing negotiations for the release of hostages, which is perceived as a priority for a vast majority of the Israeli public.
Michael noted that all those who criticize the government, mainly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, believe that the issue of Rafah has become a matter of political survival.
Dr. Ilana Shpaizman, a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, told The Media Line that for Netanyahu, “Rafah is used to promise his ‘total victory.’ He is trying to sell to the public a story that Rafah will provide us the total victory,” she said.
However, Shpaizman does not believe this narrative is true since triumphing over Hamas will take several years. “More importantly, as long as you do not have a plan for the day after in Gaza, Hamas will return, as we see in the northern part of Gaza,” she continued.
The Israeli army is advocating for a Rafah operation due to the strategic reasons mentioned. Additional influential actors support the operation, namely National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who both want the war to continue, along with Netanyahu.
In terms of the international arena, Michael mentioned American and Egyptian concerns about such an operation, which, he believes, could endanger some reached understandings with Egypt concerning the Philadelphia corridor, the 13-kilometer-long border between Gaza and Egypt. It is through this corridor that supplies, weapons, and ammunition reaches Hamas’ hands.
“The IDF is ready for the operation, and it was approved by the war cabinet. I assume that if the negotiations fail, then the operation will begin in a matter of days,” Michael said.
Shpaizman said that Hamas still has several battalions placed in Rafah. In addition, the more important assets that Hamas possesses in Rafah are the tunnels from Egypt that provide much of the supply for Hamas. “Thus, Rafah is important if you wish to disarm Hamas,” she added.
According to Michael, Rafah is “the oxygen pipe of Hamas and the other organizations in the Gaza Strip.” He added that for Hamas to be dismantled, its infrastructure in Rafah should be blocked and destroyed. “This corridor should be controlled and monitored in a similar way to the other borders of the Gaza Strip, which are controlled and monitored by sensors and barriers,” he said, warning that if that is not done, the Gaza Strip will very soon be refitted with munitions, weapons, money, and equipment. “This will create security threats and will enable Hamas to reconstitute and recover,” he continued.
Michael noted a general understanding among the Israeli public regarding the importance of the Rafah operation. However, at the same time, he added, “If I read Israeli society correctly, the vast majority prefers a deal for hostages over an operation in Rafah,” he said.
Shpaizman echoed this sentiment, noting that grasping Israeli public opinion on this matter is quite complex, as it involves more than just a straightforward yes or no regarding Rafah.
After all, she said, “The public wishes to continue fighting Hamas but, at the same time, wishes very much for a hostage deal to be promoted.”
Hamas, added Shpaizman, “seems to wish to make a deal as seen in the [hostage] videos released. However, we were proven many times in the past that we cannot really know what [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar wants. It is unclear to what extent the Rafah operation pressures him,” she said.
In the past weeks, Hamas released videos of three living hostages. The videos show 64-year-old Omri Miran, 46-year-old Keith Segal, and 23-year-old dual US-Israeli citizen Hersh Goldberg-Polin begging for their release.
“It seems that they want a deal, and the Israeli government should leverage it to reach a deal now. As we saw in the past, if we wait, the deal will no longer be on the table, and the demands will increase,” said Shpaizman.
She asserted that Netanyahu does not want to reach a deal with Hamas, as it will endanger his coalition. This is based on the opposition to such a deal by coalition members Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who threatened to leave the government if the Rafah operation is not launched.
“If, in the next few days, Hamas does not respond in this regard [to the Israeli proposal of a deal], this means that there is no deal. Then, there will no longer be any further doubts about an operation in Rafah,” concluded Michael.
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