(The Center Square) – As Pennsylvanians grapple with rising electricity costs, the debate over how to keep power both reliable and affordable is intensifying in Harrisburg.
A new Commonwealth Foundation report says ratepayers have paid more than $3.3 billion in costs tied to Pennsylvania’s alternative energy mandates and warns that parts of Gov. Josh Shapiro’s energy proposals could drive residential electricity bills higher.
The report says despite the high and rising price tag, these green energy mandates fail to increase renewable generation or drive emissions reductions.
Shapiro’s Lightning Plan, which he describes as an “all of the above” energy strategy, was announced in 2025 and includes six initiatives. The Commonwealth Foundation report focuses largely on the Pennsylvania Reliable Energy Sustainability Standard proposal, or PRESS, and the existing Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards Act, known as AEPS.
The report’s analysis of AEPS says the law has cost ratepayers more than $3.3 billion, with annual costs quadrupling from 2020 to 2025, while delivering limited in-state renewable growth and little direct impact on emissions reductions.
It also says the PRESS proposal would nearly triple the AEPS mandate and nearly double residential electricity bills.
In the 2025-26 session, PRESS is House Bill 501 and Senate Bill 501 – both sponsored by Democratic lawmakers. The bills would update Pennsylvania’s 2004 Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards Act, which require electric utilities and suppliers to obtain a portion of electricity from qualifying alternative-energy sources.
Utilities and electric suppliers comply by purchasing alternative energy credits, or pay a penalty if they fall short. Although the penalty itself cannot be passed directly to customers, the cost of buying the credits is reflected in the generation supply portion of electric bills.
As proposed, PRESS would gradually expand the mandate from about 18% to 50% by 2035: 35% from an expanded Tier I category including solar, wind, small modular reactors, fusion, and other zero-emission resources; 10% from a redefined Tier II including large hydropower and battery storage and other qualifying resources; and 5% from a new Tier III including lower-emission natural gas and alternative fuels. The proposal also creates zero emission credits to support existing nuclear generation.
The report says the Shapiro administration claims the Lightning Plan will save Pennsylvania ratepayers approximately $664 million by 2040. Those estimates are based on assumptions contradicted in the legislation.
Analysis prepared by Always On Energy Research and commissioned by the Commonwealth Foundation projects that PRESS would impose $155 billion in additional ratepayer costs, approximately doubling residential electricity bills from $1,717 in 2023 to $3,471 in 2035.
Other key findings in the report say that the mandate failed to produce a renewable generation buildout, with Pennsylvania’s share of electricity generation from renewables holding flat at approximately 4% between 2013 and 2024.
The report also asserts that the mandate is not responsible for the state’s emissions reductions, citing Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection data showing a 38% decline in electricity-generation emissions from 1990 to 2021 and attributed to the shift from coal-fired to natural gas-fired generation.
In a statement emailed to The Center Square, Elizabeth Stelle, vice president of policy for the Commonwealth Foundation said, “As consumers wonder why prices are skyrocketing, we have to look at the existing mandates and programs causing prices to rise.”
Since 2007, Stelle said, Pennsylvania ratepayers have paid more than $3.3 billion in hidden energy taxes thanks to the AEPS. While families and businesses around the commonwealth struggle with rapidly rising electricity costs, she said, AEPS is forcing them to pay 60% to 85% above wholesale price for “so-called green energy.”
“Pennsylvania does not need energy mandates – it needs affordable, reliable energy that comes only though competition in the marketplace,” Stelle said. “If lawmakers are truly concerned about rising energy costs, they would abandon these fruitless mandates.”
Pennsylvania’s energy future is becoming a defining issue in the governor’s race – Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity is challenging Shapiro’s reelection bid – with the debate extending beyond affordability to questions of reliability.
While alternative energy credits measure annual compliance, they do not guarantee that electricity will be available during peak demand or grid emergencies. Critics say if mandates push more intermittent or less dependable resources onto the grid without enough firm generation, storage, or demand response to back them up, ratepayers could face both higher compliance and reliability costs.